建材行业：探寻建材蓝海，挖掘高股东回报

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected return above the benchmark index by more than 10% [42]. Core Insights - The cement industry is experiencing a rebound in profitability after a prolonged low period, with supply-side constraints and improving demand expectations contributing to this recovery [4][8]. - In the glass sector, the report highlights the emergence of potential investment opportunities among leading companies as the industry navigates through a challenging phase marked by significant supply reductions [22][26]. - The decorative building materials segment emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with high shareholder returns, focusing on those with strong cash dividend policies and high input-output ratios [32][34]. Cement Industry Summary - The cement industry's profitability has reached a low point, with the price difference between cement and coal showing signs of improvement since Q3 2024, indicating a potential recovery [4][6]. - Supply-side measures have been implemented, with increased kiln shutdown days in East China, leading to a significant reduction in production days compared to the previous year [8][9]. - Demand is expected to improve, supported by fiscal policy changes, including an increase in local government debt limits [8][12]. - Key companies to watch include Conch Cement and Taipai Group, which exhibit strong cash positions and dividend policies [13]. Glass Industry Summary - The glass industry is at a historical low in profitability, with significant supply reductions expected as companies opt for early cold repairs and delayed restarts [18][22]. - The report suggests that leading companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are well-positioned to gain market share as the competitive landscape improves [26][28]. - The report notes a 10% reduction in supply from February to October 2024, which is expected to lead to inventory depletion among glass manufacturers [22][24]. Decorative Building Materials Summary - The report identifies a substantial market for renovation in the existing housing stock, with an estimated 300 billion square meters of existing residential space projected to drive demand for building materials [35][36]. - Companies with high input-output ratios and strong shareholder return policies, such as Weixing New Materials and Rabbit Baby, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [34][35]. - The report emphasizes the correlation between a company's culture, incentive mechanisms, and its long-term performance in terms of return on investment [32].