煤炭行业：煤价筑底，攻守兼备

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the coal sector, driven by rising coal prices and high dividend yields from select stocks [2][3]. Core Insights - The coal sector has historically generated excess returns primarily due to rising coal prices, with recent stability in high price levels suggesting continued potential for excess returns [2]. - High dividend stocks within the coal sector are currently undergoing a valuation recovery, indicating a decoupling from coal price fluctuations [3]. - Demand for coal remains resilient, particularly from the thermal power sector, while chemical and steel industries show stable demand patterns [10][13][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance Review - The coal sector's excess returns are closely correlated with coal price increases, with recent price stability suggesting ongoing profitability [2]. - High dividend stocks are experiencing a revaluation phase, indicating a shift in market perception despite coal price fluctuations [3]. 2. Demand Analysis - Thermal power demand shows resilience, with production growth rates of +6.1% year-on-year for 2023, while chemical and steel sectors maintain stable demand [10]. - Steel demand is supported by structural adjustments in product offerings and increased exports, with a notable 19.6% year-on-year increase in steel exports for the first eight months of 2024 [13]. - Chemical sector demand is expected to remain strong, with coal consumption for chemical production increasing by 9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [16]. 3. Production Insights - Coal production in the first nine months of 2024 shows a slight year-on-year increase of +0.6%, with significant reductions in production from Shanxi province [23]. - Coking coal production has declined by 6% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced output in Shanxi [25]. 4. Import Trends - Coal imports are projected to exceed 500 million tons in 2024, with a significant increase in imports from Australia and Indonesia [26][27]. - The share of imported coking coal has risen to 20% in the first nine months of 2024, indicating a growing reliance on imports to meet domestic demand [30].