2024年10月经济数据点评：政策驱动主要经济指标回升

Economic Recovery Indicators - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[24] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year from January to October, marking the first increase in recent times, with a 0.2 percentage point acceleration from the previous month[24] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.3% year-on-year from January to October, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year[25] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for October increased by 5.3% year-on-year, showing a slight slowdown in growth[25] - The production-sales rate for industrial products reached 97.3%, up by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, the second-highest level this year[26] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.4% year-on-year in October, with significant increases in the production of integrated circuits and industrial robots, at 11.8% and 33.4% respectively[26] Real Estate Sector Insights - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased at a slower rate, with a decline reduction of 1.3 percentage points from January to October compared to the first nine months[30] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 6.2% year-on-year in October, with the decline slightly widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[30] Policy Impact and Risks - The implementation of "two new" and "two heavy" policies has positively impacted consumption and investment growth since October[24] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, persistent weak consumer confidence, and insufficient counter-cyclical policy strength[21]