行业研究——周报：原油周报：OPEC月报下调原油需求预期，油价整体下跌

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil industry, with an investment rating of "Bullish" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the current oil price cycle is fundamentally driven by supply-side factors, with some oil-producing countries shifting from a market share competition strategy to a price support strategy. The U.S. oil production faces constraints due to resource degradation and inflationary pressures, while OPEC+ maintains a strong commitment to high oil prices. The global oil supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, supporting oil prices at mid-to-high levels in the medium to long term [12][14]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of November 15, 2024, international oil prices have generally declined, with Brent and WTI prices at $71.04 and $67.02 per barrel, respectively, reflecting decreases of 3.83% and 4.77% from the previous week [12][22]. Oil Price Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. shale oil production faces long-term growth limitations due to resource quality degradation and rising costs. OPEC+ is expected to maintain its ability to support high oil prices, with a projected continued increase in global oil demand from 2024 to 2026, despite economic slowdowns and energy transitions [13][14]. Oil Supply - As of November 8, 2024, U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of 100,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 478, down by one rig [12]. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing reached 16.509 million barrels per day, an increase of 175,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 91.40%, up by 0.9 percentage points [12]. Oil Inventory - As of November 8, 2024, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 818 million barrels, an increase of 2.656 million barrels (+0.33%) from the previous week [2]. Performance of Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The report notes that the oil and petrochemical sector has seen a decline of 1.38% as of November 15, 2024, while the overall market (CSI 300) fell by 3.29% [16]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina, among others [3].