Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1]. Core Insights - The coal mining industry is expected to maintain a tight balance in the coming years, characterized by high asset quality, abundant cash flow, and continued high profitability, cash flow, barriers to entry, dividends, and safety margins [1]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the subsequent inventory depletion at ports, as electricity consumption at power plants is gradually increasing, which is expected to support coal prices [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The thermal coal market shows a slight decrease in port prices, with a focus on the subsequent increase in daily consumption at power plants [18]. - As of November 15, the Qinhuangdao port price for thermal coal (Q5500, Shanxi origin) was 837 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [19]. - The production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 1.14 percentage points week-on-week, with weekly production rising by 160,000 tons [28]. 2. Coking Coal - The overall supply of coking coal remains sufficient, with an increase in the import of Mongolian coal and a rise in port inventories [64]. - As of November 15, the price of main coking coal at the Jingtang port remained stable at 1640 CNY/ton [65]. - The average crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port increased by 98 trucks week-on-week, indicating a rise in supply [70]. 3. Coke - The production rate of coking plants has decreased, while iron water production has increased, but overall demand remains weak due to the seasonal downturn [64]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor steel prices and the inventory depletion of coking coal and coke [64]. 4. Hydropower Situation - The outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir has increased week-on-week, but the water level has decreased [58].
煤炭开采行业周报:电厂日耗逐步提升,关注后续港口库存去化情况
Guohai Securities·2024-11-17 11:46