国君交运周观察：航空淡季油降价升，预计Q4将大幅减亏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil transportation sectors [5]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see significant reduction in losses during Q4 due to falling oil prices and rising ticket prices, with a recovery in supply and demand anticipated to drive profitability upwards [6]. - The oil transportation sector is influenced by trade rhythms affecting short-term freight rates, with a positive outlook on supply and demand dynamics [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - Recent declines in oil prices and increases in ticket prices are projected to lead to a substantial reduction in losses during Q4 compared to the previous year. The international flight capacity is being increased to absorb demand, and domestic business travel is showing signs of improvement [6]. - The Q3 earnings of the aviation sector exceeded 2019 levels, with a 14% year-on-year decline in net profit for A-share airlines, yet still surpassing Q3 2019 figures. Revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, indicating sustained demand for air travel [6][20]. - Major airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, and China Southern Airlines are recommended for "Overweight" ratings due to their expected performance in the upcoming quarters [6]. Oil Transportation - The oil transportation market is experiencing short-term fluctuations in freight rates driven by trade patterns. The report suggests monitoring for opportunities to invest against the trend [6]. - The report highlights that the supply of oil tankers remains rigid, with new orders being limited, which is expected to support steady growth in oil transportation demand [6]. - Companies like China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Merchants Industry are also rated as "Overweight" due to their favorable positioning in the market [6].