有色金属行业周报：降息预期弱化，商品价格承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic aluminum ingot inventory has slightly increased but remains at a recent low, leading to a negative shift in industry profitability. As of November 14, 2024, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 565,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,000 tons but a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to Monday [2][3] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products is expected to repair the price gap between domestic and international markets in the medium to long term. The Ministry of Finance announced on November 15, 2024, that the export tax rebate for aluminum and copper products would be canceled starting December 1, 2024 [2][3] - The report expresses optimism about the basic metals sector, particularly in light of potential fiscal policy boosts following the U.S. elections, recommending stocks such as Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, and Zijin Mining [2][3] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Industry Viewpoint 1: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is low, but profitability has turned negative, with average losses of approximately 253 yuan per ton as of the latest data [2][3] - Industry Viewpoint 2: The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to widen the price gap temporarily but will ultimately lead to a recovery in export volumes and price differences [2][3] New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - Industry Viewpoint: Lithium carbonate prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to unexpected demand and overseas mine production cuts. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 77,933 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1,361 yuan [5] - Stock Viewpoint: Recommended stocks in the lithium sector include Yongxing Materials, Zhongmin Resources, and Ganfeng Lithium [5]