煤炭开采行业动态研究：10 月原煤供给同比提速， 火力发电增速放缓

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a steady increase in supply, with both production and imports of raw coal accelerating year-on-year. In October 2024, the industrial raw coal output reached 410 million tons, a 4.6% increase compared to the previous year, while coal imports rose by 28.5% to 46.25 million tons [2][85] - The demand side shows a slowdown in thermal power generation growth, with a reported increase of only 1.8% year-on-year in October 2024, significantly down from previous months [3][87] - The overall coal supply growth is estimated at 2.3% when considering both domestic production and imports [86] Supply Summary - In October 2024, the average daily output of industrial raw coal was 13.28 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 530,000 tons but a year-on-year increase of 740,000 tons [1][77] - Major coal companies reported varied production results: China Shenhua produced 27.6 million tons (+0.4%), Shaanxi Coal and Energy produced 13.75 million tons (-5.2%), and China Coal Energy produced 11.34 million tons (+2.3%) [81] Demand Summary - The industrial electricity generation in October 2024 was 731 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, but a significant slowdown compared to previous months [3][87] - The steel industry shows a positive trend with pig iron production turning positive at 70.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [96] Inventory Summary - In October 2024, the overall inventory of thermal coal increased, indicating a supply surplus. The inventory at thermal coal production enterprises rose by 140,000 tons to 14.1 million tons [9][12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on coal companies with high cash flow and profitability, maintaining a positive outlook for the coal mining sector. Key companies to watch include Yancoal Energy, Guanghui Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [12][13]