商社2025年度策略：物有复始，风起再航

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the duty-free sector, particularly focusing on the recovery of Hainan's duty-free market and the growth potential of port and city duty-free operations [2][44]. Core Insights - The duty-free sector's performance is influenced by three main dimensions: the recovery of Hainan's duty-free market, the expansion of city duty-free stores, and the expected asset injections from companies like Hainan Development and Gree Real Estate [2][44]. - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from extended holidays and policies promoting winter sports tourism, with specific attention on destinations like Changbai Mountain and Dalian Shengya [3][72]. - The hotel industry is facing intense competition, with a projected weak recovery in occupancy rates, but there is potential for improvement in operational efficiency and valuation for leading hotel chains [3][75]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Industry Strategy - The current performance of the duty-free sector is under pressure, particularly in Hainan, where the recovery is ongoing due to external factors like natural disasters [2][12]. - The average spending per person in Hainan's duty-free shops has seen a decline, with significant drops during major holidays [16][18]. - Port duty-free sales are experiencing substantial growth, driven by an increase in international flights and the expansion of visa-free policies [21][23]. Tourism Industry Strategy - The tourism sector is witnessing a recovery driven by extended holiday expectations and policies that encourage domestic travel, particularly in winter sports [3][72]. - The report highlights the importance of online travel agencies (OTAs) and the increasing penetration of travel services in lower-tier cities [51][56]. - The integration of tourism resources and the potential for asset consolidation in companies like Xiyu Tourism are noted as key growth areas [60][61]. Hotel Industry Strategy - The hotel sector is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected increase in competition among chain hotels [75][79]. - The report indicates that while occupancy rates may improve slightly, the overall revenue per available room (RevPAR) is under pressure due to high competition and market saturation [75][76]. - The focus on membership programs and direct sales channels is emphasized as a strategy for major hotel groups to enhance customer retention and reduce reliance on online travel agencies [3][75].