农林牧渔：猪价偏弱震荡，关注腌腊季需求提振

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the agricultural sector [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a weak fluctuation in pig prices, with a focus on the demand boost during the curing season. As of November 15, the pig price was 16.27 yuan/kg, down 0.37 yuan/kg week-on-week. The report anticipates a potential rebound in prices towards the end of the year due to limited supply and cautious breeding operations [1][12][38] - For the white feather broiler chicken sector, the report indicates a stable to slightly strong price trend for live chickens and high prices for chicks. The average price for white feather broiler chicks was 4.15 yuan/chick as of November 15, with expectations for price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2][43][44] - The seed industry is experiencing significant advancements, with the National Seed Double Exchange Conference highlighting achievements in seed resource surveys and breeding innovations. The supply capacity for seeds has reached 75%, which is expected to support agricultural production needs [3][58][59] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices have shown a weak downward trend, with a slight rebound to 16.76 yuan/kg before declining again. The average price on November 15 was 16.27 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.37 yuan/kg. The breeding sentiment is low, with a 1.05% sales ratio for breeding pigs from November 1-10, down 0.87% from late October [1][12][38] - The report notes an increase in the proportion of heavier pigs being sold, with 5.74% of pigs weighing over 150kg during November 8-14, up 0.05 percentage points week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold was 126.46 kg, an increase of 0.56 kg week-on-week [27][30][38] - The report suggests that as temperatures drop, there may be an increase in pork demand, leading to a potential price rebound in the peak season at the end of the year [1][22][38] White Feather Broiler Chicken - The price of live white feather broiler chickens remains stable, with an average price of 7.64 yuan/kg as of November 15. The price of chicks is also high, with leading companies increasing their prices [2][43] - The report indicates that the supply-demand balance is expected to improve, leading to potential price increases for white chickens. The impact of flight restrictions and avian influenza has led to a nearly 25% decline in the update of grandparent stock since May 2022 [44][45] Seed Industry - The National Seed Double Exchange Conference showcased significant achievements in seed industry revitalization, including the completion of a national seed resource survey and breakthroughs in breeding innovation. The supply capacity for seeds has reached 75%, effectively meeting agricultural production needs [3][58][59] - The report emphasizes that ongoing advancements in the seed industry are likely to accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified varieties, benefiting leading seed companies [58][59]