当前经济与政策思考：美国通胀保持坚挺

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - US CPI for October increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth rising to 2.6% from 2.4%[9] - Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and maintained a year-on-year growth of 3.3%[10] - Retail sales in October increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%[12] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Powell indicated that the Fed does not need to rush to lower interest rates, with a 62.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December[15] - The market adjusted expectations for rate cuts following Powell's comments, reducing the likelihood from 82.5% to 62.6%[15] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index fell to 12.5 from 20.1, indicating increased pessimism among respondents[17] - The ECB's decision to cut rates in October was driven by risk management concerns amid economic growth worries[19] Group 4: Market Performance - The US dollar index rose, leading to a depreciation of other currencies and a decline in equity markets[46] - 10-year US Treasury yields increased by 13 basis points, reflecting market adjustments to economic data and Fed policy[46]