煤炭行业周报：年末决断或转向确定性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [6]. Core Viewpoints - Following the full implementation of policies in December, market investment strategies are expected to gradually focus on certainty, potentially leading to renewed investment opportunities in stable dividend leaders within the coal sector [6]. - The report highlights that after nearly two months of selling pressure on coal dividend leaders since the end of September, the current valuation and dividend yield of these leaders are becoming increasingly attractive [6]. - The report recommends key players such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy, as well as integrated coal and electricity companies like Xinji Energy, which will benefit from Shaanxi's energy policies [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Data Tracking: Price Decline and Inventory Increase - As of November 15, 2024, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port is 847 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (-1.2%) from the previous week [14]. - The overall daily consumption of coal has increased as northern regions enter the heating season, with expectations of a peak demand period [6][14]. - Inventory levels at Qinhuangdao Port have risen to 6.93 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons (5.2%) [37]. 2. Coking Coal Data Tracking: Domestic and Overseas Price Declines - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1,640 CNY/ton as of November 15, 2024 [51]. - Domestic coking coal prices have generally decreased, with the price of Inner Mongolia's main coking coal dropping by 70 CNY/ton (-4.5%) [57]. - The Australian coking coal price has decreased to 220 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton (-0.2%) [62]. 3. Market Overview - The report notes that the coal sector has outperformed the broader market recently, indicating a positive trend for coal stocks [8]. - The anticipated policy adjustments and economic recovery are expected to be gradual, with significant reliance on the effectiveness of policy implementation [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a neutral stance on policies while gradually considering investment certainties [6].