【粤开宏观】从境外经验看股市平准基金：必要性与制度设计要点

Group 1: Necessity of Establishing a Market Stabilization Fund - The establishment of a stock market stabilization fund is necessary to prevent systemic risks and market failures, especially given that there are 220 million stock investors in China[5] - Historical examples, such as the 1929 U.S. stock market crash and Japan's 1990 market collapse, illustrate the severe economic consequences of unregulated market declines[5] - Temporary measures in China, such as the 2 billion yuan intervention in 1990 and the 2 trillion yuan from the central bank in 2015, highlight the need for a structured approach to market stabilization[28] Group 2: International Practices and Lessons - Major economies have shifted from laissez-faire to decisive intervention during market crises, with stabilization funds being a common tool, as seen in Japan and South Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic[28] - The Korean stock market stabilization fund, established during the 2003 credit card crisis, was valued at 400 billion won and successfully stabilized the market, leading to a four-year bull market[6] - The Hong Kong government's intervention in 1998, which involved buying blue-chip stocks, successfully countered speculative attacks and stabilized the Hang Seng Index[49] Group 3: Key Design Considerations for China's Fund - The fund should be managed by a government body with a clear organizational structure to ensure timely and effective interventions[56] - The fund's size should be between 2% to 6% of the total market capitalization, which is approximately 2 trillion to 6 trillion yuan based on the current market value of 98.5 trillion yuan[15] - A clear exit strategy is essential, allowing for gradual divestment during market recovery to minimize distortions[11]