产业经济周观点：耐心等待

Group 1 - The report highlights strong uncertainty in US-China economic policies, indicating that the current period may not be a decisive window for recovery or liquidity trading [2] - Long-term trends suggest an expansion in the service sector while traditional manufacturing may contract, with initiatives like "Belt and Road" expected to accelerate [2][13] - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on central state-owned enterprises, the "Belt and Road" initiative, O2O (Online to Offline), semiconductor equipment, and military industry, while mid-term focus is on AI applications [2][13] Group 2 - US inflation data met expectations, with October CPI at 2.6% year-on-year, and core CPI at 3.3%, indicating persistent inflation in core services [12] - In China, retail sales growth improved significantly in October, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, driven by strong performance in cosmetics (40.1%), home appliances (39.2%), and sports and entertainment products (26.7%) [13][17] - The report notes a significant recovery in consumption due to policy support, particularly during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [13] Group 3 - The market experienced a broad decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.52%, and sectors like finance and real estate seeing substantial losses [18][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology sub-sectors for investment opportunities, as they showed relative resilience compared to other sectors [27][31] - Foreign capital index positions showed a convergence in net short positions for IC and IF, while IM and IH remained stable [38]