大类资产最新观点：美元升值斜率或放缓，国际大宗或迎来支撑？

Core Views - In the long term, the space for continued decline in internationally priced commodities such as copper, aluminum, and crude oil is relatively limited, supported by the soft landing or non-landing of the US economy and ongoing growth stabilization policies in China [2] - The exchange rate aspect shows that the USD/CNY is approaching 7.3 again, which may enhance the motivation for "expectation management" by the central bank and regulatory agencies [3] - In the black metal sector, weak demand from the real estate construction side and the upcoming rainy season in Brazil and Australia may lead to a continued weak fluctuation in rebar and iron ore prices [4] - In the US stock market, the Trump trade is driving USD appreciation, and tax cut expectations may continue to benefit US stocks; in the A-share market, the Fed's shift from dovish to hawkish means limited monetary easing space for China's central bank, leading to potential short-term A-share pullbacks, with long-term performance depending on fiscal and industrial incremental policies [5] - For precious metals, it is expected that gold may have overreacted to the Fed's hawkish turn in the short term, but long-term gold prices may still benefit from expectations of secondary inflation in the US, presenting a long-term buying opportunity during this round of gold price adjustments [6] Historical Performance Review - In the past month, major asset performances showed Brent crude oil down by 9.3%, rebar down by 9.1%, and LME copper down by 7.4%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index also experienced declines [10] - The A-share and US stock markets saw significant gains, with A-shares benefiting from a series of positive policies, while commodities faced larger declines [11] Exchange Rate and Precious Metals - The Trump victory has led to a renewed upward trend in USD/CNY, breaking above 7.2, with expectations of further depreciation pressure on the RMB if it surpasses 7.3 [16] - The short-term reaction of gold prices to the Fed's hawkish stance has been negative, but long-term prospects remain positive due to potential secondary inflation in the US [22] Black Metals - The weak demand in the real estate sector and the upcoming rainy seasons in Brazil and Australia are expected to keep iron ore prices under pressure, despite potential short-term relief from seasonal factors [53] Crude Oil - The core reasons for the decline in oil prices in October and November include the IEA's downward revision of global oil demand expectations and the Fed's tapering of rate cuts, with WTI crude oil prices falling below $70 per barrel [60]