Current Divergence Between A-Shares and Other Asset Classes - A-Shares and RMB Exchange Rate Divergence: Since mid-October, A-shares have shown strong upward momentum while the RMB has depreciated The divergence index suggests that the current trend of RMB depreciation and A-share gains may have peaked, with potential scenarios of "RMB appreciation + A-share rise" or "RMB depreciation + A-share decline" to correct the divergence [1][16][18] - A-Shares and Hong Kong Market Divergence: A-shares have surged due to improved liquidity and risk appetite post-Fed rate cuts and domestic policy shifts, while the Hong Kong market remains stagnant due to its reliance on fundamentals and sensitivity to external factors such as US-China relations and tightening global liquidity [2][23][28] - A-Shares and Commodities Divergence: A-shares reflect "strong expectations" while commodities, especially black metals and globally priced goods, show "weak reality" due to structural domestic recovery and global trade friction risks The divergence is expected to converge as economic data confirms recovery [2][29][31] - A-Shares Large vs Small Cap Divergence: The market has shown a "style seesaw" with small caps outperforming initially, but the large-cap style is now gaining dominance as the small-cap style index has retreated from 20% to 15% [3][36][37] Industry Trends and Opportunities - AI Industry Chain: AI Agent advancements are driving hardware and software growth, with overseas AI applications entering monetization phases Domestic AI applications like Doubao and Kimi are also gaining traction Overseas, AI models like OpenAI's Sora and Claude 3.5 Sonnet are making significant progress [41][42][43] - Humanoid Robots: The humanoid robot market is projected to grow from $3.28 billion in 2024 to $66 billion by 2032, with domestic players like Huawei and Xiaomi accelerating their layouts Tesla's Optimus is expected to enter mass production by 2026 [44][46] - Autonomous Driving: Overseas, Tesla's FSD v12.5 has improved safety and comfort, with v13 expected to launch soon Domestically, Xiaopeng's P7+ and Huawei's Zhijie are making rapid progress, while Pony.ai is preparing for an IPO [47][48] - New Energy: The new energy sector is at a cyclical bottom, with supply-demand dynamics improving, especially in photovoltaics and lithium batteries Solid-state batteries are a key focus, with CATL expanding its R&D team [49][51][53] - Localization and Domestic Substitution: The Trump administration's tech restrictions have reinforced the need for domestic substitution in key areas like semiconductors, EDA software, and high-end manufacturing The domestic chip industry is expected to face ongoing challenges but also opportunities for growth [56][57][60] - Low-Altitude Economy and Commercial Aerospace: The low-altitude economy is gaining momentum with central and local government support, while commercial aerospace is seeing opportunities in satellite exports and global partnerships [62][66] Key Companies and Market Trends - Photovoltaics: Supply-side reforms are underway, with new technologies like BC batteries and silver paste cost reduction driving the next wave of industry transformation [52] - Lithium Batteries: The industry is seeing a rebalancing of supply and demand, with solid-state batteries expected to enter mass production by 2026-2028 [53] - Semiconductors and Localization: Key areas include chip manufacturing, EDA software, and high-end materials, with domestic players like Huawei and SMIC facing challenges but also opportunities for growth [56][57] - Low-Altitude Economy: The market is expected to grow from 530 billion yuan in 2023 to over 1 trillion yuan by 2028, with significant investments from local governments [62] - Commercial Aerospace: Satellite exports and global partnerships are opening new opportunities, with companies like Geespace leading the way in providing global satellite communication services [66]
策略深度报告：如何看当前A股和几类资产的背离及产业趋势交易？
东吴证券·2024-11-17 14:42