有色金属行业周报：强美元压制金属价格，出口退税抬升海外升水

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the sector [9]. Core Views - The adjustment of export tax rebates and the rising US dollar index are putting pressure on metal prices, particularly for industrial metals [2][28]. - Despite concerns over export demand due to policy changes, the production of copper and aluminum in China remains competitive, and demand is expected to be resilient [2][50]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and China Aluminum [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Individual Stock Trading Data Review - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.52% and the Nonferrous Metals Index down 5.17% [45]. - Notable stock performances included Yuyuan New Materials with a rise of 42.61% and Yingluohua with a drop of 19.14% [45]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Update 2.1 Industrial Metals: Export Tax Policy Adjustment - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 5.3% year-on-year increase in industrial value added in October [48]. - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products effective December 1, 2024 [2][48]. - The US CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in October, indicating a potential for continued inflation [2][48]. 2.1.2 Copper: Price Correction and Consumption Recovery - LME copper closed at $8,971 per ton, down 4.90% from the previous week, while SHFE copper was at 73,860 yuan per ton, down 4.2% [52]. - Social copper inventory decreased to 164,300 tons, a reduction of 28,200 tons week-on-week, indicating a faster pace of destocking [52]. 2.1.3 Aluminum: Price Fluctuations - LME aluminum closed at $2,657 per ton, up 1.12%, while SHFE aluminum was at 20,780 yuan per ton, down 4.20% [3][59]. - Domestic aluminum processing enterprises are adjusting production based on demand, with a current operating rate of 63.1% [59]. 2.2 Energy Metals: Production Adjustments - MinRes announced the closure of the Bald Hill mine due to low lithium concentrate prices, with expected shipments halving in the 2025 fiscal year [63]. - Liontown adjusted its production target for Kathleen Valley to achieve 2.8 million tons by the end of 2027 [63]. 2.3 Rare Earths: Price Declines - Rare earth prices have decreased, with expectations of a replenishment wave from downstream magnetic material companies starting late November [20]. 2.4 Precious Metals: Market Reactions - COMEX gold closed at $2,567.4 per ounce, down 4.62%, reflecting a market adjustment following the US election results [21].