中国西电：三季度业绩超预期，中标柔直换流阀

Investment Rating - Maintain OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of Rmb8.56 [1][2] - Current price is Rmb8.17 as of November 15, 2024 [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching Rmb4.903 billion, up 3.74% YoY, and net profit surging 199.96% YoY to Rmb334 million [8] - Gross profit margin improved significantly to 23.74% in Q3 2024, driven by increased delivery of high-value-added products [8] - R&D expenses grew 33.77% in the first three quarters of 2024, far exceeding revenue growth, with R&D expense ratio reaching 3.85% [9] - The company won a Rmb1.34 billion bid for the flexible DC UHV converter valve in Gansu-Zhejiang, accounting for 7.5% of the total UHV equipment bidding [9] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at Rmb24.693 billion, with net profit of Rmb1.181 billion, representing a 33% YoY growth [5] - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 18.2%-18.3% from 2024E to 2026E [5] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 5.4% in 2024E to 7.2% in 2026E [5] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 47x in 2023A to 24x in 2026E [5] Industry Outlook - The UHV and power transmission equipment sector maintains high prosperity, with total bidding for UHV equipment reaching Rmb17.929 billion by November 2024 [9] - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's growth, with an average of 3-4 DC UHV lines projected to start construction annually during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [9] - Total bidding for power transmission and transformation equipment reached Rmb65.82 billion in the first five batches, up 11.6% YoY [9]