2026 年 03 月 20 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：27 分（较冷） 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 27 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：银行、电网设备、券商 1、银行主题：近期资金风险偏好下降，银行板块具备低估 值、高股息（半数标的股息率超 4.5%）的"稳健锚"属性。 在经济增速放缓和市场波动加大时，银行股凭借稳定的分红 能力，成为险资、社保等长期资金的重要配置标的。相关标 的：农业银行（601288）、宁波银行（002142） 2、电网设备主题：全球 AI 数据中心（AIDC）耗电量巨大， 催生了对高功率、高稳定性变压器等核心电力设备的刚性需 求。目前全球供需严重失衡，美国市场交货周期已长达 127 周。与此同时，国内"十五五"期间，国家电网 4 万亿元的 巨额投资将重点投向特高压、智能化配电网等新型电力系 统，为行业带来了明确的长期订单支撑。相关标的：中国西 电（601179） ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transformation of the power investment landscape driven by the integration of computing power and electricity, termed "computing-electricity synergy," which is becoming a focal point in the context of the new power system and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5] - The planned investment scale of the State Grid during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is set to reach 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, indicating a significant expansion in power infrastructure investment [1][9] Investment Cycle Analysis - The current power investment cycle is characterized as "deterministic," supported by four dimensions: historical investment intensity breakthrough, structural upgrades, dual demand drivers, and policy backing [9][10] - The article highlights that the power system is transitioning from a linear structure of "generation-transmission-consumption" to a new "smile curve" centered on system capabilities, with value shifting towards distribution, user sides, and power electronics [2][9] Key Infrastructure Components - The three core pillars of the new power system are identified as UHV (Ultra High Voltage), smart distribution networks, and energy storage systems [3][5] - UHV serves as the "skeleton" to address spatial mismatches in energy distribution, enabling large-scale long-distance transmission [3][19] - Smart distribution networks act as the "nervous system," facilitating precise distribution tasks and transitioning from a "passive" to an "active" role [3][51] - Energy storage systems function as "regulators," addressing the volatility of renewable energy sources and evolving from optional configurations to essential infrastructure [3][58] Demand Drivers - The demand for electricity is driven by the increasing share of renewable energy installations, which currently account for approximately 47.3%, and the rapid growth in electricity consumption from data centers, projected to double by 2030 [1][20][24] - The article notes that the global electricity consumption of data centers is expected to rise from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030, reflecting a significant increase in demand for power systems [24] Industry Chain Transformation - The traditional power industry chain is undergoing a transformation, with value migrating from centralized generation to distributed energy and user-side transactions, driven by the rise of distributed energy and market reforms [26][30] - The article outlines that the new power system's value chain is shifting towards digital grids, where IT and software integration becomes crucial, and energy storage and power electronics emerge as new core areas of value [30][31]

研究报告 Research Report 18 Mar 2026 国际工业+能源 Global Industrials + Energy 中日韩电力设备公司对比：面对海外需求大浪，维持梯度分工还是逐步对齐颗粒度？ Comparison of Power Equipment Companies: In the Face of a Massive Wave of Overseas Demand, Will the Tiered Division Persist or Gradually Converge? | | | | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 中广核电力 | Outperform | 3.80 | 13 | 12 | | 东方电气 | Outperform | 11.24 | 24 | 22 | | 上海电气 | Outperform | 2.02 | 60 | 41 | | 电能实业 | Out ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the transformer industry, particularly for Chinese companies, indicating a new era of volume and price increases in exports [2][50]. Core Insights - The demand for electricity is surging due to the data center construction wave, leading to both existing and new demand for transformers. Global data center electricity consumption is expected to double from 460 TWh in 2022 to over 1000 TWh by 2026, making data centers a key driver of electricity demand growth in various regions [3][10]. - The aging power grid in Europe and the U.S. is prompting a significant upgrade, with many transformers nearing the end of their service life. Approximately 55% of U.S. transmission transformers have been in service for over 33 years, leading to a supply shortage expected to last until 2030 [3][24]. - Chinese transformer manufacturers are positioned to benefit from this situation, with a complete and efficient supply chain that includes raw materials and production capabilities. By 2025, China's transformer export value is projected to reach 646 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35.8% [3][38]. - Chinese companies are actively expanding overseas, utilizing strategies such as "core components from China + regional assembly" to navigate trade barriers and enhance their global market share [3][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Surge in Electricity Demand from Data Centers - The report highlights that the construction of data centers is leading to an explosive increase in electricity demand, necessitating higher specifications for transformers to ensure stable power supply [3][10]. - The extreme requirements for power supply stability in data centers, particularly for AI infrastructure, are driving the demand for high-quality transformers [3][11]. Section 2: Chinese Companies in the Transformer Industry - Chinese companies dominate the transformer industry, with a complete supply chain that allows for self-sufficiency in key materials. By 2025, China's oriented silicon steel production capacity is expected to reach 4.51 million tons, accounting for 56% of global capacity [3][30]. - The export structure of Chinese transformers is improving, with the average export price per unit increasing from approximately 158,000 RMB in 2024 to 205,000 RMB in 2025, indicating a shift towards higher-end products [3][38]. Section 3: Companies Related to Transformer Exports - Key players in the transformer industry include TBEA, which leads in high-voltage transformers and has a significant share in overseas markets, and other companies like Suyuan Electric and Jinpan Technology, which are expanding their international presence [3][46][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that can quickly adapt to overseas infrastructure demands, possess core high-voltage technology, and maintain stable profit margins amid raw material price fluctuations [3][50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the power equipment industry is transitioning from "high growth" to "accelerated growth," indicating strong sustainability and certainty in its performance [2][12][27] - The report highlights that the current investment strategy should focus on "marginal changes in growth," emphasizing both G (growth) and Δg (change in growth rate) [2][12][26] - The power equipment sector is expected to experience a high prosperity cycle comparable to the coal industry in 2022, driven by a reversal in performance anticipated in 2025 [3][14] Group 2 - Energy security is projected to bring further valuation premiums to the power equipment sector, as the geopolitical landscape emphasizes the need for energy independence [4][5] - The report outlines three macro trends driving demand for power equipment: reshaping of supply-side dynamics, enhancement of energy system resilience, and the reconfiguration of national strategic reserves [4][5] - The power equipment industry is positioned to benefit from the transition towards domestic energy sources, particularly in wind, solar, and nuclear energy [4][5] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest prioritizing segments within the power equipment industry that align with both energy security and growth metrics [5][9] - Key focus areas include battery storage, grid equipment, synergistic computing and electricity solutions, and domestic energy sources [5][9] - The battery storage sector is identified as a core component of national strategic reserves, transitioning from commercial exploration to a strategic material [5][9]

Group 1 - South Korean retail investors have significantly increased their net purchases of Chinese assets, particularly in sectors such as power equipment, engineering machinery, and chemicals, which are classified as HALO assets by Goldman Sachs [1] - The top net bought A-shares by South Korean investors include companies like SANY Heavy Industry, China Power Construction, and Guangxun Technology, while the leading Hong Kong stocks include China Energy Construction and Baidu [1] - The current trend indicates that as risk appetite rises among investors, there is a shift towards HALO assets, suggesting that AI technology stocks are perceived to be overvalued [1] Group 2 - The performance of US tech stocks has been mediocre this year, while the South Korean stock market has shown strong growth but recently experienced volatility [1] - Global capital is increasingly seeking certainty in investments, especially following geopolitical events in the Middle East, indicating that HALO assets are unlikely to be replaced by AI and some sectors are entering a price increase cycle [1]

Group 1 - Korean investors have shown significant interest in A-shares, with top net purchases including SANY Heavy Industry, Power Construction Corporation of China, and Accelink Technologies, among others [1][3] - In the Hong Kong market, notable net purchases include China Energy Construction, MiniMax, and Harbin Electric, indicating a strong preference for energy and technology sectors [1] - The trend reflects a shift towards HALO assets, which are characterized by stability and growth potential, particularly in the context of rising global uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Over the past month, three ETFs have made it to the top 20 net purchases by Korean investors, with the Silverhua CSI Innovation Drug Industry ETF leading at a net purchase of $148.05 million [2] - The strong performance of the Korean stock market has encouraged local investors to allocate funds into Chinese assets, particularly in the innovative drug and artificial intelligence sectors [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing wealth creation myth surrounding AI in the A-share market, highlighting the significant rise in market capitalization of companies involved in AI infrastructure since the advent of ChatGPT [2]. Group 1: AI and Energy Supply - The logic of computing power extends to upstream energy supply, with power grid equipment becoming a core investment theme, resulting in numerous stocks doubling in value over the past year [3]. - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, have committed to self-supplying or purchasing the electricity needed for AI data centers, indicating a shift in responsibility for energy supply [7]. - The competition for AI dominance is evolving into an energy race, which has activated the power grid equipment sector, supporting its recent price increases [10]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Domestic investments in power grids are projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, providing a solid demand foundation for high-voltage and smart grid sectors [12]. - In the U.S., power grid operators are pushing for a $75 billion transmission expansion plan, focusing on building high-voltage AC lines [12]. - The EU has announced a plan to invest 1.2 trillion euros by 2040 for comprehensive grid modernization [13]. Group 3: AI Model Performance and Cost Structure - China's AI model invocation surged by 127% in early 2026, surpassing the U.S. for the first time, with Chinese models capturing 85.7% of the global market [20]. - The cost structure of AI token production shows that electricity and hardware depreciation account for over 70% of the total cost, emphasizing the importance of energy supply in AI commercial viability [24]. - The price of tokens for Chinese AI models is significantly lower than that of U.S. models, providing a competitive advantage in the global market [28]. Group 4: Power Supply Challenges in the U.S. - The U.S. faces significant challenges in power supply, including long interconnection wait times averaging over 8 years and regulatory hurdles that delay new high-voltage transmission lines [30][31]. - The aging infrastructure and lengthy approval processes hinder the ability to meet the rapidly increasing demand for electricity from AI data centers [31]. - In contrast, China's power supply system is more stable and efficient, supporting the rapid deployment of AI computing power [33]. Group 5: Company Performance and Market Opportunities - Companies like Suyuan Electric have benefited from both domestic smart computing expansion and overseas demand for power equipment, with revenue reaching 21.205 billion yuan, a 37.18% increase [40]. - Jinpan Technology reported a net profit of 659 million yuan, driven by sales growth in the AI data center sector [41]. - The high-voltage equipment sector is expected to maintain high demand over the next 5-10 years, with companies possessing core technological advantages poised for growth [53].

中国西电电气股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票 于 2026 年 3 月 4 日、3 月 5 日和 3 月 6 日连续 3 个交易日内日 收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过 20%，根据《上海证券交易所交易 规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动情况。公司目前生 产经营活动均正常，日常经营情况未发生重大变化。根据中证 指数有限公司发布的数据，截至 2026 年 3 月 6 日收盘，公司滚 动市盈率为 82.04，市净率为 4.37，换手率为 10.76%，公司所 属中证行业分类"电网设备"滚动市盈率为 40.49，市净率为 4.36，公司滚动市盈率偏离同期行业数据。鉴于近期公司股价 波动较大，敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策， 审慎投资。 中国西电电气股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动公告 证券代码：601179 证券简称：中国西电 公告编号：2026-008 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 经公司自查并向控股股东书面发函查证，截至本公告披露 日，确认不存在应披露而未披露的重大事项或重要信息。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares rose again on March 6, with over 4,200 stocks in the green; Hong Kong stocks surged, with the Hang Seng Index up nearly 2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up nearly 4% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.38% at 4,124.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index gained 0.87% [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 190 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Electric Equipment Sector - The electric equipment sector showed strong performance, with Zhongyi Technology rising nearly 15%, Nanfang Technology and Ankao Zhidian up over 10%, and Shun Sodium Co. achieving a three-day winning streak [3] - China West Electric continued to set historical highs with an increase of over 6% [3] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw significant gains, particularly in innovative drugs and weight-loss drug concepts, with Yahu Pharmaceutical hitting a 20% limit up and Rongchang Bio rising nearly 14% [7] - Other notable performers included Shanghai Yizhong and Bai'ao Saitou, both up over 9%, and Junshi Biosciences, which rose nearly 5% [7] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector collectively rose, with Yasheng Group and Dunhuang Seed Industry hitting the limit up, while COFCO Technology and Xiangjia Co. increased by over 7% [11] - Muyuan Foods and other stocks in the sector rose over 5% [11] Policy Insights - The 2026 government work report emphasizes the cultivation of emerging industries, including biomedicine, and encourages state-owned enterprises to lead in application scenarios [9] - The report highlights the importance of the biopharmaceutical industry, indicating strong policy support and confidence in the sector's growth potential [9] - The report also outlines plans for enhancing grain production capacity and agricultural technology, suggesting a focus on agricultural innovation and seed technology [13]