工业金属框架系列（一）：有色行业深度研究：铝：面向未来的金属

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the aluminum industry Core Insights - The raw material supply is not a bottleneck for electrolytic aluminum production, with increasing price volatility due to higher import concentration of bauxite in China [6][38] - Global bauxite reserves are abundant but concentrated in a few countries, with Guinea, Vietnam, Australia, and Brazil holding 65% of the total reserves as of 2023 [6][16] - China's reliance on imported bauxite has increased, with a foreign dependency rate reaching 63.1% in 2024, primarily from Guinea [38][39] - The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum in China is expected to remain relatively stable, with short-term supply influenced by precipitation in the southwestern region [7][8] - Demand for aluminum in construction remains resilient, with growth expected in manufacturing and renewable energy sectors, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum in 2024 [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Aluminum Industry Chain - The aluminum industry chain includes upstream mining and smelting (bauxite mining and alumina production), midstream electrolytic aluminum smelting, and downstream aluminum processing and consumption [13][14] 2. Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Global bauxite production is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1% from 2023 to 2030, with Guinea and Indonesia being the main contributors [6][33] - The report highlights that the production capacity of alumina is not a bottleneck for electrolytic aluminum production, with significant new capacities expected in both domestic and overseas markets [7][46] 3. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing of electrolytic aluminum is primarily influenced by inventory levels, with a correlation observed between aluminum and copper prices during periods of weak supply-demand dynamics [8] - The CIF price of bauxite is highly sensitive to shipping costs, which are affected by port facilities and transportation infrastructure [8] 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Guinea will continue to be a major source of bauxite production growth, while Indonesia's bauxite export restrictions may be reconsidered in the future [24][29] - The overall outlook for the aluminum industry remains cautiously optimistic, with supply-demand dynamics expected to stabilize in the near term [7][8]