策略周观点：牛市休整的两种情形

Group 1 - The report highlights two scenarios of market consolidation during a bull market, emphasizing that even in a bull market, a decline in trading volume often leads to quarterly-level fluctuations. The characteristics of early and late bull market consolidations differ significantly [2][8][17] - In the late stage of a bull market, adjustments typically involve horizontal consolidation for 2-3 months, while early-stage consolidations can last from six months to a year. For instance, after Q1 2019, the turnover rate dropped from 2.58% to 0.7%, leading to a year-long market consolidation [8][11][14] - The report notes that high turnover rates (high trading volumes) are likely to precede market consolidations. Historical data since 2005 shows that turnover rates tend to rise significantly during bull markets, but their fluctuations are often more pronounced than the index itself [9][10][11] Group 2 - The report suggests that the current market is likely in the early stages of a new bull market, characterized by a lack of profit support and primarily driven by valuation increases. Economic indicators are generally weak, but there is a consensus that policies may alleviate previous concerns from bear markets [8][16] - The report provides configuration recommendations, prioritizing sectors such as financial real estate, media internet, and consumer electronics, which are seen as benefiting from policy changes and growth potential [18][20] - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a slowdown in the speed of its bull market due to insufficient inflow of retail funds, contrasting with the rapid inflow seen in previous bull markets [17][22]