基础化工行业能源周报：以黎冲突降温，OPEC下调需求增速预期，本周油价下行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the energy sector, particularly focusing on oil and coal [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in oil prices due to the easing of the Israel-Lebanon conflict and OPEC's downward revision of global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [31][54]. - The coal market shows stability with slight price declines, while the demand for coal remains supported by high temperatures and inventory management strategies among power plants [32][34]. - The natural gas market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with rising prices in Europe and the US, while domestic LNG prices have slightly decreased [37][38]. - The oil service sector is experiencing a recovery in activity levels due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies [41][42]. Summary by Sections Oil - Global oil and gas capital expenditures have declined significantly since the Paris Agreement, with a notable reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 highs [29][53]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened concerns over energy supply, impacting European imports from Russia [54]. - OPEC's latest report indicates limited growth in oil supply, with production levels remaining low and constrained by geopolitical factors [54]. Coal - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 853.6 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.83% [32]. - Inventory levels at key ports show a slight increase, while power plants are managing their coal consumption effectively, leading to stable pricing dynamics [34]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have remained stable, with the focus on maintaining production levels amid cautious purchasing behavior from steel mills [35]. - The report notes a decline in steel prices, which may affect the demand for coking coal in the near term [35]. Natural Gas - European natural gas prices have increased, with TTF prices at 44.76 euros/MWh, up 9.2% from the previous week, while US natural gas futures rose by 56.6% to 2.89 USD/MMBtu [37][49]. - The report indicates that the EU's price cap agreement may lead to liquidity challenges in the gas market [38]. Oil Services - The oil service sector is benefiting from increased capital expenditures, with a reported total of 581.738 billion yuan for major oil companies in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2018 [41]. - The report highlights a rise in global active drilling rigs, indicating a positive trend for the oil service industry [42].