农业2025年度投资策略：生猪产业链景气有望延续，宠物食品厚积薄发

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in 2025 [1][7][21]. Core Insights - The main theme for agricultural investment in 2025 is certainty, with expected improvements in agricultural demand driven by essential consumption attributes of agricultural products [1][7]. - The pig industry is expected to remain in a favorable cycle, with limited capacity recovery due to low restocking willingness and ability, leading to optimistic price expectations for 2025 [1][7]. - The pet food sector is witnessing stable profitability from overseas operations and a release of profits from domestic brands, which could enhance valuations for leading companies [1][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The report predicts that the pig price for 2025 will not be pessimistic, with limited capacity recovery due to low restocking willingness and ability [1][7][17]. - The expected average price for 2025 is projected to be significantly better than the 2023 average of 15.02 yuan/kg, with supply levels anticipated to be lower than in 2023 [1][25][30]. - Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, WH Group, New Hope Liuhe, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the favorable conditions [1][30]. 2. Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a decline in profitability, but there are growth opportunities in ruminant and pet health products [1][36][45]. - The market for animal vaccines is shrinking, but new products in ruminant and pet health are expected to drive structural growth [1][45][52]. - Key companies to watch include Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, as they are positioned to capitalize on future growth [1][57]. 3. Pet Industry - The pet market in China is rapidly growing, with urban pet ownership reaching 75.1 million by 2023 and a market size nearing 279.3 billion yuan [1][61][68]. - The report highlights a shift towards high-end pet food products, particularly baked goods, which are expected to drive industry upgrades [1][71][76]. - Recommended stocks in the pet sector include Guai Bao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from increasing domestic market share and profitability [1][82][88].