交通运输行业2025年度投资策略：积极配置弹性方向

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry in 2025, suggesting an active allocation to elastic sectors [1] Core Views - The report anticipates increased market activity in 2025 due to incremental policy support, which will benefit various sub-sectors of transportation [1] - The report highlights two types of elasticity: earnings elasticity and valuation elasticity, with earnings elasticity potentially driving valuation elasticity in an active market [1] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, domestic container shipping, and bulk supply chain, with a focus on strong cyclical industries like shipping [1] - Low-altitude economy and dividend assets are expected to offer valuation elasticity, with the low-altitude economy potentially entering its third investment cycle in 2025 [1] Aviation Sector - Aviation is highly sensitive to fiscal policy, with demand and profitability closely linked to economic recovery [7] - The sector is expected to show two-stage outperformance: early fiscal stimulus-driven performance and later strong earnings elasticity as industries recover [7] - Key companies to watch include China Eastern Airlines Logistics, JiaYou International, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [7] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector showed strong demand resilience in the first three quarters of 2024, with a 22% year-on-year growth in business volume [7] - The industry is moving towards "anti-involution," which is expected to benefit express delivery companies by releasing earnings elasticity [7] - Key companies to watch include SF Holding and STO Express, with SF Holding expected to see sustainable net profit margin growth [7] Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is expected to enter its third investment cycle in 2025, driven by order volume growth [7] - The report divides the low-altitude economy's market performance into four stages: logic, product, order volume, and M&A [7] - Key areas to focus on include host manufacturers, engine suppliers, and radar systems, which are expected to see significant growth in low-altitude infrastructure [7] Dividend Assets - Ports and highways are highlighted as sectors with long-term value and potential valuation elasticity [8] - Key companies in the port sector include China Merchants Port, Qingdao Port, and Tangshan Port, while highway companies like China Merchants Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Ninghu Expressway are also recommended [8] Shipping Sector - Domestic container shipping is expected to see stable freight rates and upward elasticity for leading companies [8] - The crude oil tanker market is recommended due to long-term supply constraints and expected demand growth, while the dry bulk market is expected to recover gradually [8] Key Companies and Their Performance - China Southern Airlines: Expected to benefit from debt restructuring and regain growth momentum [7] - Spring Airlines: Continues to leverage its low-cost competitive advantage, with strong performance in Q3 2024 [7] - SF Holding: Achieved a record high in Q3 net profit, with a 21.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [110] - STO Express: Saw a 195% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by improved operational efficiency [110]