计算机行业2025年投资策略：多维共振，精彩纷呈

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a Positive rating for the computer industry [3] Core Views - The computer industry is experiencing a multi-dimensional resonance driven by technological innovation, economic cycles, industrial policies, and CapEx trends [5] - The industry is transitioning from the PC era to the AI era, with the Gartner Hype Cycle and Moore's Law playing pivotal roles in shaping the tech landscape [5] - The report highlights that AI, domestic computing power, and intelligent driving are key drivers of the industry's future growth [6] - The industry is expected to benefit from a double-click effect due to external and domestic interest rate cuts, low fund holdings, and the premium on domestic assets [6] Key Summaries by Section 1. Multi-dimensional Resonance in the Computer Industry - The Gartner Hype Cycle remains a constant in the evolution from the PC era to the AI era, with technological cycles shortening due to the "Super Moore's Law" [25] - Tech giants' CapEx is leading the industry direction, while economic cycles guide mid-term fluctuations, and industrial policies serve as crucial levers [25] - Historical trends show that macroeconomic cycles significantly impact the computer industry, with fiscal and industrial policies playing a key role during downturns [43] 2. Interest Rate Cuts and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts provide a favorable external environment for the computer industry's valuation expansion [54] - Domestic interest rate cuts and improved liquidity are expected to support the industry's growth, with historical parallels seen in 2015 and 2019 [66] - The computer industry's PE (TTM) has entered a marginal expansion phase, with valuations expected to rise further due to AI, domestic computing power, and intelligent driving trends [59] 3. Alpha and Beta Tracks - AI is a critical driver of market growth, with scaling laws driving demand for computing power and domestic innovation [97] - AI applications are improving in quality, with productivity tools like Office and PDF being key areas of focus [7] - AI hardware innovations are emerging across various sectors, including PCs, smartphones, and robotics, while AI's energy consumption is driving demand for clean energy [7] - Smart driving, industrial intelligence, and financial IT are expected to exhibit strong Alpha characteristics, while sectors like Huawei's HarmonyOS and low-altitude economy are supported by strong policy backing [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI server-related companies and domestic AI chip manufacturers, such as HaiGuang Information, Cambricon, and Inspur Information [123] - Companies in the cooling, power supply, and high-performance storage sectors are also recommended due to the increasing demand for power and storage driven by computing power iterations [123] 5. Market Performance and Fund Holdings - The computer industry's fund holdings reached a four-year low in 3Q2024, with a marginal improvement in risk appetite [72] - The industry's PE has been grinding at a low level but is expected to rise rapidly due to policy-driven liquidity improvements [85] - High trading volumes in the bull market are amplifying the industry's performance, with the computer sector's trading activity showing relative strength [89]