定量策略周报：一个短期的风险规避

Group 1 - The core market driver is the confirmation of the Trump trade, leading to a collective adjustment in risk assets, with only the US dollar index rising. Key risk points include the possibility of not lowering interest rates, as indicated by Powell's hawkish remarks and a 53% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19. The Trump trade is expected to continue until the first quarter of 2025, providing buying opportunities due to normal pullbacks from excessive concentration in gains. It is advisable to diversify investments into gold, the Nikkei, and US long-term bonds [4][22][24] - The expected decline in central bank gold purchases in 2025 may lead to a decrease in ETF inflows, with short-term downward pressure primarily from profit-taking on speculative positions. Gold is anticipated to find support near $2,500, and currently, gold, the US dollar index, and US stocks are inversely correlated, offering effective diversification opportunities. The Nikkei is expected to benefit most from the fiscal expansion of the Trump trade and a temporarily strong US dollar, providing a hedge against US stock risks. This week, Japan saw a net inflow of $800 million according to EPFR [24][25] Group 2 - In the A-share market, there was a net outflow of $500 million from northbound investments, while there was continued inflow into Hong Kong stocks. After the National Congress, northbound trading participants continued to sell, with net positions decreasing by 0.4% to 6.8%, indicating limited further downside potential [25] - The financing balance in the A-share market has risen to CNY 1.83 trillion, with financing buying intensity showing a double peak, second only to 2015. Domestic public funds began to slightly bottom-fish on November 12, starting to replenish positions sold on October 8. The second round of B rebound is mainly driven by high-leverage investors, and if financing buying intensity declines, the profit-making effect will decrease, leading to reduced trading volume. The support level to watch is 3,250, and if there is a rebound next week, attention should be paid to whether the upper level of 3,409 can be broken [26][27] - The report is bullish on industrial manufacturing, materials, discretionary consumption, staple consumption (rebound), energy (rebound), and pharmaceuticals (rebound) for November. Key industries to focus on include industrial manufacturing, consumption, debt restructuring, and inflation-related sectors [27][28] Group 3 - The report suggests maintaining a dividend and growth strategy, with a focus on semiconductor technology stocks as part of a broader investment strategy [33][36] - The industry outlook includes adding transportation and coal sectors while removing building materials and oil and petrochemicals. Key industries highlighted are electric equipment and new energy, food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, and electricity [37] - The report recommends the Media ETF (512980) and Information Security ETF (159613) as weekly top picks [38]