有色行业2024三季报综述：铜铝金盈利有所回落，能源金属业绩修复明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metal industry [11] Core Insights - The performance of the base metal sector showed a year-on-year net profit growth of 42.76% for the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of 27.028 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.52% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 16.5% [5][25] - Gold prices have been supported by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding elections, leading to a strong upward shift in gold price levels [6][26] - Energy metals are experiencing a price decline, with lithium prices under pressure due to inventory accumulation and cost rigidity among resource-integrated companies [7][27] - The rare earth sector is seeing a recovery in profitability due to stabilized prices and expected demand growth from fiscal stimulus and new energy sectors [8][28] - The titanium sector is facing profitability challenges, awaiting a recovery in high-end demand [9][30] Summary by Sections Base Metals - The base metal sector's net profit for Q1-Q3 2024 increased by 42.76%, with Q3 profits at 27.028 billion yuan, a 24.52% year-on-year increase but a 16.5% decline from the previous quarter [5][25] - Price changes for key metals in Q3 included copper down 5.63%, aluminum down 5.74%, and nickel down 11.66% [25][26] Gold - Following a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have entered a high-level fluctuation phase, supported by inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks [6][26] - The outlook for gold remains strong due to ongoing purchases by central banks and ETFs, alongside geopolitical uncertainties [6][26] Energy Metals - In Q3 2024, energy metal prices have generally declined, with lithium prices pressured by inventory accumulation and cost challenges [7][27] - Nickel prices have decreased amid cooling macroeconomic expectations, while cobalt prices have hit historical lows [7][27] Rare Earths - The rare earth sector has seen price stabilization and a recovery in profitability due to reduced production quotas and improved demand expectations [8][28] - Future demand growth is anticipated from fiscal stimulus and the new energy sector [8][28] Titanium - The titanium sector is currently facing low profitability, with high-end demand yet to recover significantly [9][30] - Despite a decrease in raw material costs, the overall performance remains under pressure [9][30]