煤炭与消费用燃料行业周报：如何看待10月煤炭供需数据？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [7]. Core Insights - The coal price is expected to stabilize in late November due to increased heating demand, despite a weak market influenced by seasonal demand and supply recovery [5][15]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in coal supply from major production areas in October, with a year-on-year increase in raw coal production of 4.6% [5][15]. - The report anticipates that the average price of thermal coal will range between 800-850 RMB/ton in 2025, slightly lower than in 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 3.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.04 percentage points [15]. - As of November 15, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 837 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton from the previous week [15][40]. Supply and Demand Situation - In October, the raw coal production reached 410 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [5]. - The coal import volume in October was 46.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [5]. - The report notes that the demand for thermal coal is expected to improve as heating season approaches, with a projected demand growth of over 2% in 2025 [5]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is under pressure due to seasonal demand and supply recovery, but a rebound is expected as heating demand increases [5][15]. - The report also mentions that the average price of coking coal remained stable at 1640 RMB/ton as of November 15 [15]. Company Performance - The report suggests a diversified investment approach, recommending companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy for their strong fundamentals and market positions [6].