电力设备新能源行业碳中和领域动态追踪（一百四十四）：出口退税率下调加速锂电涨价与供给优化，关注美国政策变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for certain products, including lithium batteries, from 13% to 9%, effective December 1, 2024. This change is expected to impact the export scale of lithium battery products, particularly in the U.S. market, which is the largest for these exports [1]. - The reduction in export tax rebates is projected to decrease the export tax rebates for Chinese lithium battery companies by approximately $1.747 billion. This policy aims to retain competitive pricing within the domestic market and alleviate fiscal pressure by reducing subsidies that contribute to overseas inflation [1]. - The report anticipates a new round of price increases in the lithium battery sector, driven by short-term supply-demand tensions and a potential recovery in profitability in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Sections Export Tax Rebate Impact - The export value of lithium-ion batteries from China in the first nine months of 2024 was $43.687 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%. The U.S. accounted for $10.106 billion of this, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [1]. - The reduction in export tax rebates is expected to have a more significant negative impact on second and third-tier battery companies, which have weaker cash flow and pricing power, potentially accelerating capacity elimination and supply optimization [1]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the adjustment in export tax rebates could lead to increased pressure on companies with high overseas revenue proportions, such as Pylon Technologies and Funeng Technology, with rebate reductions accounting for 3%-4% of their revenues [1]. - The competitive landscape is expected to shift, with leading companies facing less impact compared to those with poor profitability and cash flow [1]. U.S. Policy Changes - The report notes potential risks associated with U.S. policy changes under the new administration, particularly regarding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its implications for electric vehicle subsidies. The cancellation of these subsidies could negatively affect sales and profits for companies like Tesla in the short term, while potentially benefiting them in the long term [1]. - Other automakers, such as Ford, may face increased challenges in the electric vehicle market if IRA subsidies are removed, leading to a slowdown in U.S. electrification efforts [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on battery segments with strong pricing power and greater price elasticity, such as copper foil and lithium iron phosphate cathodes, recommending companies like CATL, Hunan Youneng, and Wanrun New Energy [4]. - It also advises monitoring leading material companies that are likely to clear excess capacity and have expansion capabilities, such as Shantui Technology and Zhongke Electric [4].