有色金属行业国内铝材铜材取消出口退税点评：取消出口退税对铝的影响高于铜，铝价内外比值后续仍有望修复

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [3] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum has a greater impact than for copper, with expectations for the aluminum price ratio to recover in the future [1] - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase export costs for aluminum manufacturers, potentially suppressing their export enthusiasm and increasing domestic supply, which may negatively affect domestic aluminum prices [1] - Historical data suggests that aluminum export volumes may recover post-tax rebate cancellation, as seen in previous adjustments in 2007 [1] - Long-term domestic aluminum prices are expected to have upward momentum due to demand from emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, despite a decline in real estate construction [1] - The impact of the cancellation of copper export tax rebates is limited, with only a small percentage of copper production affected [1] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On November 15, 2024, the Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, affecting 24 aluminum product codes [1] - The immediate market reaction saw LME aluminum prices rise by 5.56% while SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.63% [1] Aluminum Market Analysis - In the first nine months of 2024, the export volume of the affected aluminum products was approximately 4.62 million tons, accounting for 99% of total aluminum exports [1] - In 2023, aluminum exports were 5.287 million tons, representing 8.4% of domestic production [1] - The historical precedent from 2007 indicates that while export volumes may initially decline, they can recover over time [1] Copper Market Analysis - The cancellation of copper export tax rebates is expected to lead to a price increase for exported copper products, but the overall impact on the copper market is limited [1] - The affected copper products accounted for only 3.2% of total copper production in 2024 [1] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on companies with overseas copper and aluminum processing capacities, such as Hailiang Co., Ltd. and Ming Tai Aluminum, as well as those benefiting from rising LME aluminum prices like Alcoa and Century Aluminum [1]