石油化工行业周报第378期：美联储降息预期下行，IEA预计25年原油供给过剩

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry [6][7]. Core Views - Concerns over demand dominate the market, leading to a continuous decline in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $71.05 and $66.95 per barrel, down 3.9% and 4.9% respectively from the previous week [2][3]. - The IEA has slightly raised its oil demand forecast for 2024 but still expects a supply surplus of over 1 million barrels per day in 2025 due to persistently weak demand [4]. - The long-term outlook for oil prices remains optimistic due to cost pricing dynamics, with Middle Eastern oil producers needing higher prices to maintain fiscal balance [5]. Summary by Sections Oil Demand Situation - The IEA has adjusted its 2024 oil demand growth forecast upward by 59,000 barrels per day to 921,000 barrels per day, primarily due to stronger-than-expected gasoline demand in OECD countries [4]. - For 2025, the demand forecast has been slightly lowered to 990,000 barrels per day [4]. Oil Supply Situation - The IEA anticipates that oil supply from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2025 [4]. - If OPEC+ members proceed with their production increase plans, the expected supply surplus could be significantly larger [4]. Price Dynamics - The fiscal breakeven price for major Middle Eastern oil producers is projected to be $96.2 per barrel in 2024 and $84.7 in 2025, indicating a strong incentive to maintain higher oil prices [5]. - The report suggests that oil prices may achieve a rebalancing driven by marginal cost pricing, with a long-term outlook for prices to remain elevated [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major Chinese oil companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as oil service companies that are expected to benefit from the ongoing capital expenditure recovery in the upstream sector [6].