钢铁行业周报：逐步进入淡季，库存继续下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [3]. - Inventory levels are on a downward trend, with total inventory at 12,037.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons week-on-week, maintaining historical low levels [4]. - The profitability of steel companies has decreased, with the simulated gross profit for rebar at 249.2 CNY/ton, down 49.6 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][36]. - Demand expectations are improving, with anticipated mergers and acquisitions accelerating within the industry due to prolonged losses and declining profitability since 2022 [4]. - The report highlights a series of macro policies aimed at boosting market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to stabilize and reduce its negative impact on steel demand [4]. Summary by Sections Steel Prices and Inventory - Rebar prices decreased by 110 CNY/ton to 3,420 CNY/ton, a drop of 3.12% [9]. - Total apparent consumption of steel was 8,765.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.12% week-on-week [19]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 82.08%, down 0.21 percentage points [25]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices fell by 41 CNY/ton to 744.00 CNY/ton, a decline of 5.22% [42]. - Iron ore port inventory increased to 15,280.51 thousand tons, a rise of 0.07% [47]. Profitability and Production - The profitability of steel companies decreased, with the overall profitability rate at 57.58%, down 2.16 percentage points [25]. - Total steel production was 8,615.8 thousand tons, a slight increase of 0.09% week-on-week [30]. Recommendations - Key recommendations include companies with leading technology and product structures such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4].