ASR(688220) 光大证券·2024-11-18 01:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its competitive strength in cellular baseband chips and the growth potential of new product categories such as smartphone chips and 5G RedCap [3][5] Core Views - The company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 2,540 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.72%, with a gross margin of 23.46% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 884 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, but the gross margin declined to 21.94% due to lower revenue from high-margin custom services and IP licensing [1][2] - The company's R&D expenses in Q3 2024 increased by 19.86% year-on-year to RMB 310 million, driven by higher share-based compensation and tape-out project costs [2] - The company's LTE Cat 4 automotive front-end solutions saw significant growth in H1 2024, with single-product sales reaching the million level, and the WiFi+BLE Combo chip shipments steadily increased among major white goods manufacturers [2] - The company's first smartphone chip, ASR8601, has been successfully shipped and is used in at least 5 smartphone models, with total shipments expected to exceed one million by the end of the year [3] - The company plans to launch its second-generation 8-core 4G smartphone chip and 5G RedCap smart terminal chip next year, contributing to new revenue growth [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted to be RMB 3,453 million, RMB 4,517 million, and RMB 5,823 million, respectively, with a PS valuation of 4.9X, 3.8X, and 2.9X [3] - The company's net profit for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be RMB -519 million, RMB -347 million, and RMB 34 million, respectively [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 24.1% in 2024E to 31.2% in 2026E [9] Market and Product Development - The company's AIoT business is benefiting from a recovery in demand and product category expansion, with strong performance in the global children's smartwatch market and active engagement in the adult smartwatch market across Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia [2] - The company's 4-core products are steadily shipping, and the 8-core products are progressing well, with the RedCap commercialization expected to contribute to new revenue growth [3]