交通运输行业周报：聚焦：航空裸票转正，关注财政发力—>航空早周期超额收益机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" recommendation for the aviation sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in early-cycle excess returns driven by fiscal stimulus [1][5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is showing resilient growth in passenger volume despite entering the fourth quarter's off-peak season, with a recent week showing a year-on-year increase of 11% in domestic civil aviation passenger volume, surpassing levels from September 2019 [1][41]. - The average ticket price (including fuel) has decreased by 6% year-on-year but has shown a 4% week-on-week increase, indicating a narrowing decline in ticket prices [1][41]. - The report emphasizes the two-phase excess return potential in aviation, particularly during the early stages of fiscal stimulus and later during the recovery of various industries [1][66]. Summary by Sections Focus on Aviation - Recent data indicates that the domestic aviation market has seen a significant rebound, with passenger volume exceeding 1.69 million per week, a 66% increase in cross-border passenger volume, and an average seat occupancy rate of 85% [1][41][42]. - The report discusses the sensitivity of aviation demand to fiscal policy, drawing parallels to the 2008-2010 period where fiscal measures led to a rapid recovery in aviation demand [1][43][48]. Industry Data Tracking - Domestic passenger volume has shown a year-on-year increase of 11%, while the average ticket price has decreased by 17% compared to 2019 levels [1][41]. - The report also tracks cargo and shipping metrics, noting a 12.6% year-on-year increase in outbound cargo prices at Pudong Airport and a 24% increase in VLCC freight rates [1][41]. Market Review - The transportation sector experienced a 3.3% decline, remaining in line with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [1][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the low-altitude economy, highlighting key companies such as Wanfeng Aowei, CITIC Haineng, and Zongshen Power [1][41]. - It suggests that companies like Huaxia Airlines and China National Aviation Corporation are well-positioned to benefit from fiscal policies and market recovery [1][75][76]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of logistics and supply chain companies, particularly those involved in bulk supply chains, as they are expected to benefit from economic recovery [1][79].