批零社服行业：10月社零同比+4.8%，化妆品表现强劲

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3][29] Core Viewpoints - In October 2024, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales (社零) was 4.8%, with a total retail sales amount of 4.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to September. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.09 trillion yuan, growing by 4.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The growth rate of rural social retail sales outpaced that of urban areas, with urban retail sales at 3.93 trillion yuan (YOY +4.7%) and rural retail sales at 0.61 trillion yuan (YOY +4.9%) [1] - The Double Eleven shopping festival significantly boosted certain categories, with cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry retail sales growing by 40.1% and -2.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] - E-commerce penetration increased by 0.2 percentage points, reaching 25.9%, with online retail sales of physical goods amounting to 12.36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sales Performance - October retail sales reached 4.54 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1] - The breakdown shows that commodity retail sales were 4.04 trillion yuan (YOY +5.0%) and catering revenue was 0.50 trillion yuan (YOY +3.2%) [1] Category Performance - Food and beverage retail sales grew by 10.1% and -0.9% year-on-year, while cosmetics saw a remarkable increase of 40.1% [1] - The retail sales growth rates for building materials, furniture, and home appliances were -5.8%, +7.4%, and +39.2%, respectively [1] Investment Recommendations - For cosmetics, the report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and high certainty in Q3 performance, such as Runben Co., Ltd., Juzhibio, and Proya [1] - In the jewelry sector, it suggests investing in Lao Fengxiang and Zhou Daxing, anticipating a recovery in consumption [1] - For tourism, it highlights opportunities in winter tourism and cultural tourism policies, recommending Changbai Mountain and Jiuhua Tourism [1] - In the cross-border sector, it advises focusing on leading companies expanding their product categories and markets, such as Xiaoshangcheng and Anker Innovations [1] - For offline retail, it recommends companies like Kidswant and Miniso, which are improving profit margins by controlling brand discounts and closing unprofitable stores [1]