兖矿能源：澳洲增产摊薄成本，非煤业务盈利提升修复业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.41 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 4.21 billion yuan year-on-year (-27.0%, adjusted). The net profit for the third quarter alone was 3.84 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1 billion yuan (+2.8%) but a year-on-year decrease of 0.71 billion yuan (-15.6%, adjusted) [5][6]. - The coal production and sales in Australia have shown a recovery, offsetting the decline in domestic sales. In Q3 2024, the company produced and sold 36.73 million tons and 34.72 million tons of commodity coal, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 10% and 4% [5][6]. - The company is expected to achieve significant coal production growth in the coming years, with the commissioning of new mines and increasing capacity in existing operations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 11.41 billion yuan, down 27.0% year-on-year. The Q3 net profit was 3.84 billion yuan, up 2.8% quarter-on-quarter but down 15.6% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company’s coal production reached 27.2 million tons, a 15% increase year-on-year, with a target of an additional 7.8 to 11.8 million tons for the full year [6][7]. Coal Business - In Q3 2024, the company’s commodity coal production and sales were 36.73 million tons and 34.72 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 10% and 4% [5][6]. - The average selling price of commodity coal in Q3 was 656 yuan per ton, down 6% year-on-year, while the cost per ton decreased by 16% year-on-year to 327 yuan [5][6]. Non-Coal Business - The chemical segment saw a sales volume of 2.17 million tons, with a sales profit of 1.5 billion yuan, while the power segment generated a sales profit of 0.08 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in profitability due to cost reductions [6][7]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 15.51 billion yuan, 15.75 billion yuan, and 16.48 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.0x, 9.8x, and 9.4x [7][9]. - The expected dividend yield for A shares is projected to be 6.0%, 6.1%, and 6.4% for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating a strong return for investors [7].