基础材料行业周报(第四十六周)：铜材、铝材出口退税取消，有色金属价格或分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for non-ferrous metals and basic metals and processing [1][3] Core Views - The cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum is expected to lead to price differentiation in non-ferrous metals [1][3] - The report highlights that while aluminum prices may experience fluctuations, copper prices are expected to stabilize in the short term due to strong fundamentals [1][3] - The report suggests that gold prices may rebound in the short term despite recent declines, driven by ongoing inflation risks in the U.S. [1][3] Summary by Sections Basic Metals - The cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum is anticipated to create a divergence in market performance for basic metals [3][9] - Copper prices were reported at 74,270 CNY/ton, showing a year-over-year decrease of 0.3 thousand CNY [9] - The report notes a significant increase in demand for copper due to export activities and a rise in operating rates for copper processing [9][10] Precious Metals - Gold prices have recently corrected, with the report recommending investors take advantage of current opportunities [3][13] - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to remain strong due to persistent inflation risks and geopolitical factors [13] Rare Earths - The ongoing disturbances in Myanmar are expected to lead to a strong fluctuation in rare earth prices [3][14] - The report anticipates that the supply-side disruptions will create volatility in the market, but long-term demand may remain robust [14] Lithium - The report indicates that lithium carbonate prices are expected to experience high volatility, with current prices at 78,680 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-over-week increase of 4.27% [3][15] - The demand for lithium remains strong due to ongoing trends in energy storage and electric vehicle markets [15]