内销向好出口稳健，25年关注两大主线

Group 1: Domestic Sales Outlook - The home appliance index increased by 25% from January to October 2024, ranking third among industries, but has faced rotation adjustments since October[1] - Domestic retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 7.8% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2024, with October alone seeing a significant 39.2% increase[2] - The demand for home appliances is expected to remain optimistic in 2025, driven by policies like "trade-in for new" and a potential bottoming out of the real estate chain[3] Group 2: Export and Global Market Trends - Export growth may moderate due to weakening pure replenishment demand, with companies heavily reliant on North American exports facing tariff uncertainties[4] - Chinese home appliance companies with early integrated global production and sales layouts are expected to maintain relative advantages in future global competition[4] - The global online sales of home appliances remain significantly lower than in China, indicating potential for growth through e-commerce platforms[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on domestic recovery and real estate post-cycle, recommending strong brands like Gree Electric, Hisense, and Boss Electric[3] - Emphasize companies with overseas full-industry chain capabilities, such as Anker Innovations and Roborock, to enhance global market share[4] - The home appliance sector's revenue from domestic sales is expected to gradually recover in 2025, particularly in segments benefiting from trade-in policies[18] Group 4: Financial Performance Metrics - In Q3 2024, the home appliance sector achieved total revenue of CNY 389.84 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, and net profit of CNY 30.33 billion, up 0.8% year-on-year[43] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the sector's total revenue reached CNY 1,186.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while net profit was CNY 92.53 billion, up 5.5%[43] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE TTM) has rebounded to 15x, indicating a return to the median level over the past five years[38]