策略周观点2024年第34期：利好政策效果逐步显现

Market Performance - Major A-share indices declined during the week of November 11 to November 15, with the Sci-Tech 50 index experiencing the largest drop of -3.78%[10] - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 21,805.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.09% compared to the previous week[18] - The real estate, defense, and non-bank financial sectors saw significant declines of 8.92%, 8.79%, and 7.65% respectively[10] Sector Activity - The electronic sector was the most active, with a trading volume of 17,587.98 billion yuan, leading all sectors during the week[18] - The computer and power equipment sectors followed, with trading volumes of 13,871.48 billion yuan and 8,784.57 billion yuan respectively[18] Valuation Levels - As of November 15, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the Sci-Tech 50 index was at a historical percentile of approximately 87.09%, the highest since 2010[31] - Ten sectors, including comprehensive, computer, and coal, had PE ratios exceeding the historical 50th percentile[33] Economic Indicators - The M2 money supply growth rate increased to 7.5% year-on-year as of October, while the total social financing stock growth rate showed a decline compared to previous values[41] - In October, the retail sales growth rate rebounded to 4.8% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment excluding real estate grew by 7.6% year-on-year[41] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with significant recovery in performance and strong improvement momentum, particularly in mid-to-low-end segments[41] - Continuous attention to growth sectors related to new productivity, including electronics, AI computing power, and low-altitude economy[41] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy changes, corporate earnings falling short of expectations, and economic data not meeting forecasts[45]