策略周报：情绪重整后市场如何演绎？

Market Overview - Recent geopolitical disturbances and domestic focus on trading funds have led to a market pullback, with trading activity from leveraged and retail investors declining[1] - The A-share market is expected to find support around the October low, with reasonable PE levels aligning with macroeconomic indicators[1] Risk Factors - Market risk appetite has decreased due to external factors, particularly the strengthening of the US dollar index, which rose to 107, impacting market sentiment[2] - Profit forecasts for the CSI A500 index have slightly declined since late October, but are expected to stabilize as domestic demand policies take effect[2] Valuation Insights - The current reasonable PE TTM for A-shares is approximately 18.1x, consistent with the valuation range observed since mid-October[3] - The dollar index's rise is anticipated to influence market valuations, with a revised forecast for the dollar index's central position at 106 by the end of 2024[3] Trading Activity - Trading activity in A-shares has seen a decrease, with retail funds showing a net outflow and financing balances declining to 9.8% as of November 14[4] - Despite the overall decrease in trading volume, there has been a net inflow into ETFs exceeding 20 billion yuan in the latter half of the week[4] Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for short-term investments, focusing on high-dividend and growth sectors, particularly in publishing, banking, and logistics[5] - Mid-term investment focus should be on the reversal of profit differentials between domestic and external demand, as well as the clearing of excess capacity in key sectors[5] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include uncertainties in overseas policies and discrepancies in domestic real estate sales and annual report performances[6]