建材行业2025年投资策略：经济政策发力，建材预期反转

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, driven by policy support and potential valuation recovery [2][7] Core Views - Policy support is expected to drive a turnaround in the building materials sector, with real estate and infrastructure policies providing a strong foundation for recovery [2] - Consumer building materials, such as waterproofing, coatings, and pipes, are benefiting from product and channel diversification, with improving cash flow and reduced credit risks [3] - Traditional building materials like glass and cement are expected to see profit improvements due to policy support and cost reductions [4] - The pharmaceutical glass sector is poised for growth, driven by the "consistency evaluation + centralized procurement" policies, with medium borosilicate glass penetration expected to rise significantly [5] - The glass fiber sector is showing signs of recovery, with slowing capacity growth, inventory turning points, and improving export data [6] Market Performance Review - The building materials sector underperformed the CSI 300 by 17.60 percentage points from the beginning of 2024 to November 11, but saw a significant rebound of 36.32% after September 24 due to policy-driven market movements [10] - Sub-sectors within building materials, such as carbon fiber, pipes, and refractory materials, all experienced gains after September 24 [13] Policy Support - Real estate policies have led to marginal improvements, with sales area declines narrowing in major cities, and infrastructure investment continues to grow rapidly, supported by special bond issuances [26][39] - Multiple policies, including debt resolution measures and infrastructure investment, are expected to drive valuation recovery in the building materials sector [45] Consumer Building Materials - Waterproofing materials are expected to maintain demand resilience due to policy support for urban renewal and infrastructure projects [52] - Coatings companies are focusing on retail and engineering channels, with domestic leaders like Skshu Paint accelerating channel reforms and expanding production [61][66] - Pipes companies are benefiting from the retail market's resilience and the potential growth from urban renewal projects [73][77] Traditional Building Materials - Float glass prices have seen a slight recovery due to policy support, with inventory levels decreasing from 60 million to 50 million cases [84] - Cement demand is increasingly driven by infrastructure, which is expected to offset the decline in real estate demand, with cost pressures easing due to falling coal prices [102][108] Pharmaceutical Glass - The penetration rate of medium borosilicate glass in China is less than 20%, significantly lower than the international average of 70%, but is expected to grow rapidly due to policy support [122] - Companies like Linuo Special Glass are expected to benefit from the transition to medium borosilicate glass, with significant revenue contributions from new production lines [129] Glass Fiber - The glass fiber sector is showing signs of recovery, with slowing capacity growth, inventory turning points, and improving export data [135] - Prices for electronic yarn are stabilizing, with some regions seeing improved order volumes, although overall demand growth remains limited [138] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Skshu Paint, Linuo Special Glass, Kibing Group, and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials, citing their strong fundamentals and potential for recovery [144][145]