光伏行业周报：光伏出口退税调降，落后产能出清或将加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the photovoltaic industry [2]. Core Insights - The reduction of export tax rebates from 13% to 9% is expected to increase export costs, leading to accelerated industry consolidation as weaker players face profit margin pressures [41]. - The photovoltaic glass segment is experiencing accelerated cold repairs and production halts, resulting in a decrease in inventory days, indicating a potential recovery in profitability as supply tightens [42][43]. Summary by Sections Export Tax Adjustment - The export tax rebate reduction is anticipated to push up costs across the industry, which may not significantly impact overall profitability due to strong pricing power among leading companies [41]. - The adjustment is likely to compress profit margins for second and third-tier companies, facilitating a faster exit of less competitive firms from the market [41]. Photovoltaic Glass Segment - Photovoltaic glass prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand, with prices for 3.2mm coated glass dropping to 20.00 CNY/m², a 24% decrease since May [42]. - Cold repairs and production halts have increased, with over 21,000 tons per day of capacity undergoing cold repairs this year, primarily affecting older furnaces with lower profitability [42]. - As of the latest report, the industry inventory days have decreased to approximately 38.13 days, down 1.2% week-on-week, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability as inventory levels normalize [42][43]. Price Trends in the Photovoltaic Supply Chain - The average price for polysilicon dense material remains stable at 40.00 CNY/kg, while the price for polysilicon granular material is at 36.50 CNY/kg [78]. - Prices for various silicon wafers and battery cells have shown minimal fluctuations, indicating a stable pricing environment in the upstream supply chain [78][81]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the silicon material segment, such as Tongwei Co., Xiexin Technology, and Daqo New Energy, as well as integrated component manufacturers like Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar [2]. - Companies involved in new technology developments, particularly in BC mass production and silver-free paste technologies, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2].