交通运输行业周报-聚焦：航空裸票转正，关注财政发力-＞航空早周期超额收益机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" recommendation for the aviation sector, particularly highlighting specific companies such as Huaxia Airlines and China National Aviation [1][5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is showing resilience with a year-on-year increase in passenger volume of 11%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels from 2019. The average seat occupancy rate is at 85%, which is a 6 percentage point increase compared to last year [1][41]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the aviation sector, suggesting that it is a classic domestic demand-driven industry. It highlights two phases of excess returns: the early phase driven by fiscal stimulus and the later phase where the industry shows strong earnings resilience as the economy recovers [1][43][66]. Summary by Sections Focus on Aviation - Recent data indicates that the average ticket price (including fuel) for domestic flights is 551 yuan, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous week but a 6% decrease year-on-year. The bare ticket price has turned positive with an 11% year-on-year increase [1][41][42]. - The report draws parallels with the 2008-2010 fiscal stimulus period, suggesting that similar fiscal measures could lead to a rebound in aviation demand [1][43][44]. Industry Data Tracking - Domestic passenger volume has exceeded 1.69 million in the past week, marking an 11% increase year-on-year and a 9% increase compared to 2019. The average cross-border passenger volume is 210,000, up 66% year-on-year [1][41][42]. - The report also tracks cargo and shipping metrics, noting a 12.6% year-on-year increase in outbound cargo prices at Pudong Airport and a 24% increase in VLCC shipping rates [1][41]. Market Review - The transportation sector has seen a decline of 3.3%, remaining in line with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [1][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the low-altitude economy, highlighting key companies such as Wanfeng Aowei and Zhongxin Haizhi. It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises for potential buybacks and capital increases [1][41]. - The report identifies several cyclical investment opportunities, including airlines, logistics, and bulk supply chains, emphasizing the potential for significant earnings growth as the economy stabilizes [1][41][79].