储能行业Q4景气研判：踏浪前行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the energy storage industry [12]. Core Insights - The report continues to favor large-scale energy storage overseas, particularly in the U.S., where demand remains high and price declines are narrowing. It recommends focusing on leading companies and flexible PCS (Power Conversion System) targets [5][28]. - In the domestic market, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking opinions on a new action plan for high-quality development in the energy storage manufacturing industry, indicating a potential turning point in profitability [5][35]. - The report highlights that household storage is entering a seasonal demand lull, suggesting a focus on leading household storage companies and portable energy storage opportunities [5][28]. Summary by Sections Quarterly Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring overseas project approvals and domestic policies, recommending leading companies and flexible PCS targets [5][28]. Domestic Market - Demand continues to exceed expectations, with Q3 2024 domestic energy storage installations reaching 15.64 GWh, a 77% year-on-year increase. In October, domestic energy storage bids totaled 13.6 GWh, up 80% year-on-year [6][36]. - The average bid price for energy storage systems in October showed a slight increase, indicating a bottoming phase in pricing, with supply surplus still being a core issue [6][41]. U.S. Market - In the U.S., large-scale energy storage installations reached 862 MW in September 2024, a 48.3% year-on-year increase. The cumulative installed capacity for the first nine months of 2024 was 6.64 GW, up 56.6% year-on-year [7][36]. - The report notes a decline in terminal prices and new orders, reflecting a decrease in battery cell costs [7]. European Market - Household storage demand remains under pressure in Europe, particularly in Germany and Italy, although favorable policies for balcony solar storage are expected to gradually restore overall demand [8]. - Italy's large-scale storage installations in H1 2024 reached 1.33 GWh, a significant increase of 1701% year-on-year [8]. Non-European and American Markets - Demand for large-scale storage continues to expand in regions like Australia, South America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, with notable projects underway [9]. - The report highlights potential growth in household storage markets in countries facing electricity price increases or severe shortages [9]. Industry Dynamics - The large-scale storage sector is entering a peak shipping season, with price declines expected to slow down. The report notes a significant increase in exports of inverters to non-European and American markets [10][36]. Supply Chain - The report indicates that the price of energy storage cells continues to decline due to falling lithium carbonate prices, but a stabilization is expected as the market enters a peak shipping season [10][36].