CSEC,China Shenhua(601088) 湘财证券·2024-11-18 04:45Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for China Shenhua (601088.SH) as part of its initial coverage [1] Core Views - The third quarter performance of China Shenhua was impressive, showcasing significant competitive advantages as a leading player in the industry [1] - The company reported a revenue of CNY 253.90 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 46.07 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 85.82 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 16.57 billion, up 21.66% quarter-on-quarter and 10.5% year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The company experienced stable coal production with an increase in sales. For the first three quarters of 2024, coal production was 244 million tons, up 1.0% year-on-year, and sales volume was 345 million tons, up 3.8% year-on-year, with purchased coal contributing significantly to the increase at 11.8% [5] - The average selling price of coal (excluding tax) for the first three quarters was CNY 564 per ton, down 3.3% year-on-year, but in Q3 2024, the selling price was CNY 560 per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5] - The unit production cost of self-produced coal for the first three quarters was CNY 186.3 per ton, down 2.5% year-on-year, attributed to declines in raw material costs and repair expenses [5] Power Generation Business - The company saw a significant increase in electricity generation and sales due to peak summer demand. Total electricity generation for the first three quarters was 168.14 billion kWh, up 7.6% year-on-year, and total sales were 158.27 billion kWh, up 7.8% year-on-year [6] - The average selling price for electricity was CNY 401 per MWh, down 0.7% year-on-year, while the average cost was CNY 356.2 per MWh, down 3.6% year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - The company has a high proportion of long-term coal contracts, indicating stable profitability. New key projects in Inner Mongolia have received approval, which is expected to further expand coal production capacity [7] - The integrated business model allows the company to expand into multiple sectors, including power generation, which is anticipated to continue contributing to growth [8] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are CNY 57.1 billion, CNY 56.9 billion, and CNY 58.0 billion, with corresponding EPS of CNY 2.88, CNY 2.87, and CNY 2.92, leading to a PE ratio of 13.69x, 13.72x, and 13.0x respectively [8]