食品饮料行业周报：淡季需求平淡，关注Q4旺季备货

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][6][44]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand is currently weak during the off-season, but there is a focus on stocking up for the Q4 peak season. It emphasizes the potential for recovery in the food and beverage sector due to recent policy implementations aimed at stimulating consumption and improving macroeconomic conditions [1][6][44]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 3.56% in the week of November 11-15, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 3.52%. Among sub-sectors, beer had the smallest decline at 1.73%, while soft drinks and meat products fell by 2.21% and 2.53%, respectively [3][28]. - In October 2024, the total retail sales in China reached 4.54 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, primarily driven by cosmetics, sports and entertainment products, and home appliances [2][6]. Key Recommendations - For the liquor segment, the report recommends stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others, suggesting a focus on brands that maintain stable pricing amid promotional activities [6][44]. - In the consumer goods category, recommended stocks include Bairun, Three Squirrels, Jin Zai Foods, and others, with a focus on products with gifting attributes and those relevant to the upcoming Spring Festival [6][44]. Market Performance - The report notes that the liquor industry has been under pressure due to macroeconomic demand expectations, but recent policies are expected to enhance market confidence and lead to a valuation recovery in the liquor sector [2][6][44]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage sector is currently at 21.87x, indicating a mid-range position among primary industries, with other liquor categories leading in valuation [28][38].