铝行业周报：铝材出口退税将取消，氧化铝价格继续上扬

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products starting December 1 will increase export costs and may impact the export volume of aluminum processing companies [8] - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a tight supply of bauxite, which is expected to support the prices of alumina [14][17] - The overall demand for aluminum remains stable, with some recovery in downstream orders, particularly in the appliance sector [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of November 15, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2656.5 per ton, up $29.5 from the previous week, and up 19.4% year-on-year [25] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 20780.0 CNY per ton, down 910.0 CNY from the previous week, but up 9.6% year-on-year [25] 2. Production - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is 837,000 tons, down slightly from the previous week but up 3.3% year-on-year [59] - The weekly production of alumina is 1.647 million tons, up 0.9% from the previous week and up 4.9% year-on-year [59] 3. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable, with some companies undergoing maintenance, limiting supply [9] - The demand from downstream sectors is stable, with some companies increasing production to meet orders [10] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the industry include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [6]