海外市场周观察：“没有必要急于降息”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that there is no urgent need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, despite a slight increase in inflation expectations. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from 75.7% to 61.9% following comments from Fed Chairman Powell [1][27][28]. - The October inflation rate in the U.S. is reported at 2.6%, which is higher than the previous value of 2.4%, indicating a stable inflation trend. The core CPI also aligns with market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [2][27][28]. - The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims decreasing to 217,000, down from 221,000, and continuing claims also declining to 1.873 million from 1.884 million [2][27][28]. Group 2 - In the equity market, major global indices experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 6.28% and the Korean Composite Index down by 5.63% [55][60]. - The report highlights that the financial sector in the U.S. saw a modest increase of 1.02%, while the healthcare sector faced a significant decline of 5.55% [64]. - In the commodity market, cotton showed the highest increase at 2.42%, while CBOT soybean oil experienced the largest drop at 6.75% [72]. Group 3 - The report notes that the U.S. dollar appreciated by 0.92% against the Chinese yuan, with the dollar index rising by 1.65% [68]. - The report indicates that the 10-year Treasury yield in the U.S. rose by 13 basis points to 4.43%, while yields in Germany decreased by 5 basis points to 2.33% [77].