Guohai Securities·2024-11-18 05:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [1] Core Views - Alibaba's commercialization strategy is steadily advancing, focusing on high-quality GMV growth, with core business showing robust growth [4][39] - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY2025Q2, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5% [2][12] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 47.3 billion yuan, down 4% year-over-year [2][12] Financial Performance Summary - Overall Performance: For FY2025Q2, Alibaba achieved a net profit of 43.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63% year-over-year, and a 81% increase quarter-over-quarter [2][12][13] - Segment Performance: - Taobao Group: Revenue reached 99 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 1%. The adjusted EBITA was 44.6 billion yuan, with an EBITA margin of 45% [4][39] - International Digital Commerce Group: Revenue grew by 29% year-over-year to 31.7 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in cross-border business [44] - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue increased by 7% year-over-year to 29.6 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for five consecutive quarters [49] - Profitability Metrics: The operating profit margin was 14.9%, and the net profit margin was 18.4% for FY2025Q2 [36] Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027, estimating revenues of 1,005.9 billion yuan, 1,110.6 billion yuan, and 1,222.8 billion yuan respectively [51] - The target market capitalization for FY2025 is set at 2,055.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 107 yuan per share [51][52]