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铝：退税政策变动，内外价差要缩到多少？
Tebon Securities·2024-11-18 05:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent adjustment in export tax rebate policies is expected to impact domestic aluminum exports significantly, with a potential reduction in price competitiveness for domestic products [6][5] - The policy change may lead to a narrowing of the price gap between domestic and international aluminum prices, with estimates suggesting a maximum adjustment of 1351 RMB per ton [7] - Despite short-term risks of price declines due to the policy changes, the report anticipates a gradual improvement in domestic demand, supporting a strong outlook for aluminum prices in the long term [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown varying performance, with a notable decline of 22% from November 2023 to March 2024 compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, effective December 1, 2024 [4] - The volume of aluminum products affected by the rebate cancellation has been significant, with totals of 540.37 million tons in 2021, 612.60 million tons in 2022, and 523.67 million tons in 2023 [5] Price Impact - As of November 17, 2024, domestic aluminum prices have shown a decline, with Shanghai aluminum at 20,460 RMB per ton, reflecting a 1.63% drop, while London aluminum prices increased by 5.56% to 2,656.5 USD per ton [6] - The report projects that if the current trade levels are to be maintained, the domestic price may need to adjust downward while international prices may rise, leading to a more balanced market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several companies for investment, including Ming Tai Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Nanshan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Lizhong Group, indicating a positive outlook for these firms despite short-term price risks [8]